【摘要】 本文根据Clower(1967)的现金先行机制,在新古典框架下构建了考虑银行生产函数的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)。模型采用校准和贝叶斯估计方法获得模型参数,通过稳态方程、脉冲响应和数值模拟分析,发现放开存款利率上限将有助于提高居民消费,促进金融服务业发展并吸收更多就业;由于银行部门的作用,资本存量下降和经济结构改善过程将更为平缓;银行在经济波动中的作用会越来越重要,货币政策的有效性和利率传导渠道将得到明显改善;产出和通胀波动将下降,利率和银行信贷波动加大,从而要求货币政策逐步转向价格调控。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the Cash in Advance(CIA) constraint of Clower(1967),we develop a DSGE model including a banking production function under the neo-classical framework.The model finds that,with deposit interest rate liberalization,higher interest rate will increase private consumption,promote the development of financial service sector and improve the employment.The decrease of capital stock and economic structure amelioration will slow down.The volatilities of output and inflation decrease.The effectiveness of monetary policy and interest channel also improves.更多还原