【摘要】 新能源和可再生能源的规模化发展能够有效缓解化石能源约束给经济社会发展带来的影响。在合理控制能源消费总量的背景下,本文根据"十二五"规划中提出的GDP增速目标和能耗目标,设定了3种情景模式,测算出到2020年在3种情境下新能源和可再生能源在能源消费总量中的比重,并提出了新能源和可再生能源的发展对传统化石能源的替代必须充分考虑经济效益,走规模化发展的道路。要实现新能源和可再生能源的规模化发展和对传统化石能源的替代,需要从传统能源与新能源之间的体制改革、政策支持体系、长效创新机制和技术支撑等方面进行创新,推动新能源和可再生能源的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of new energy and renewable energy can effectively alleviate the impact of fossil energy constraints on economic and social development. Under the circumstance of controlling the total energy consumption and in accordance with the target for GDP growth and energy consumption target proposed by the "Twelfth Five Year Plan",the paper has arrived at three models of scenario and the percentage of new and renewable sources of energy in the total energy consumption under three kinds of situations by the end of 2020. In addition,it is suggested that the replacement of traditional fossil energy by new energy and renewable energy must fully consider the economic benefits and take the approach of large-scale development. Finally,the reform from traditional energy to new energy,policy support system,long-term innovation mechanism,technical support and other aspects of innovation need to be implemented to promote the development of new energy and renewable energy sources.更多还原