【摘要】 本文从区域经济增长和区域技术进步两个角度分析了官员任期稳定性、产业结构适宜性与区域经济发展之间的内在作用机制,并利用1996-2010年中国省级面板数据进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)官员任期的不稳定会导致产业结构的非适宜性增加。(2)产业结构的非适宜性与区域经济增长之间存在倒U型关系,即产业结构非适宜性低于某一最优点时,产业结构非适宜性的提高会促进经济增长,超过该点则会抑制经济增长。进一步研究发现官员任期通过产业结构非适宜性能够促进经济增长,但随着产业结构非适宜性的提高,这种促进作用会逐步弱化。(3)产业结构的非适宜性对技术进步产生负面影响。官员任期的稳定性增强,有助于产业结构适宜性的提升,并因此有利于技术进步。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the inner mechanism of officials ’ tenure stability,industrial structure suitability and regional economic development from two aspects of regional economic growth and regional technology development,meanwhile,this paper conducts the empirical analysis with the provincial- level panel data in China from 1996 to 2010. The results are as follows:( 1)The instability of the officials’ tenure will lead to the increase of the industrial structure non-suitability.( 2) There is an inverted U- curve relationship between the industrial structure non-suitability and regional economic growth. That is,the industrial structure non- suitability will promote regional economic growth when it is lower than the optimum level,otherwise it will restrain regional economic growth when it is higher than the optimum level. Besides,we also find that the officials’ tenure can promote regional economic growth through the industrial structure non-suitability and such effect decrease gradually with the improvement of the industrial structure non- suitability.( 3) The industrial structure non- suitability will have a negative influence on regional technology development,and the enhancement of the officials’ tenure stability will benefit the improvement of the industrial structure suitability,therefore,it will be conducive to the development of technology.更多还原