【摘要】 理论模型分析表明物质资本积累若具有正的内、外部性且人力资本积累能够实现对物质资本积累的替代,则经济增长是可持续的。笔者对中国1978年~2010年数据的检验证实了上述理论模型能够解释改革开放以来的中国经济增长,实证分析还表明上世纪90年代中后期以来中国实际GDP增长放缓主要是由于物质资本积累的正内部性出现显著下降造成的,而人力资本、物质资本积累的非均衡是导致这一局面的根本原因。因此,有效地进行人力资本积累对中国今后的经济增长而言至关重要。更多还原

【Abstract】 The theoretical model shows that the economic growth can be sustainable with the following conditions. That the physical capital accumulation provides positive externality and internality,and that the human capital accumulation substitutes physical capital accumulation gradually. Our empirical study with data from 1978 to 2010 confirmed that the model is true in the case of China’s economic growth. It also suggested that the great drop of the positive internality of the physical capital accumulation,which is caused by the unbalanced growth of the human and physical capital accumulation,has led to the slowdown of the actual GDP growth since the middle and later period of the 1990’s. We believe that effective accumulation of human capital is the key to the future economic growth in China.更多还原