【摘要】 对于新兴经济市场而言,由于众多诱发因素的存在,国际资本可能在短时间内集中外逃,由此引发国内金融市场的剧烈动荡。为此,本文通过对影响国际资本外逃因素的分析,构建自回归分布滞后模型,检验国际资本外逃规模对影响因素变动的敏感性。基于我国1986—2013年相关数据对资本外逃规模进行测算进而实证检验的结果表明:资本外逃规模与外国直接投资、人民币币值变动率之间存在正向关系,而与宏观经济和金融稳定性、银行及贸易信贷规模之间存在负向关系;其中,除外国直接投资以外的三个变量对资本外逃规模的影响均存在滞后效应。由此,提出防范国际资本集中外逃,促进我国经济长期稳定增长的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With regard to emerging economies,international capital may have the tendency of intensive flight in a short time because of the existence of a number of predisposing factors,which can trigger the upheaval of the domestic financial market. Based on the analysis of the influential factors of international capital flight,this paper establishes autoregressive distributed lag model to test the sensitivity of the scale of international capital flight to the change of factors. On the basis of the data from 1985 to2013,the relevant empirical results show that the scale of foreign direct investment and currency fluctuation rate of RMB has positive impact on the scale of capital flight while macroeconomic and financial stability and the size of bank and trade credit have significant negative effect on the scale of capital flight. In addition,the hysteresis of the factorsabove except the scale of foreign direct investment is found.According to test results, the paper makes policy suggestions to prevent intensive flight of international capital and ensure the long-term stable and sustained development of China’s economy.更多还原