【摘要】 通过对围填海相关著作和文献进行系统梳理,分析得出其中围填海工程综合影响的主要影响因素,并按照其属性进行分类。在此基础上,运用系统动力学理论和方法,选取经典的因果反馈模型,基于综合影响因素,并引入"关键节点判别",探索性地建立了围填海工程综合影响因果反馈模型,对该模型进行了分析与讨论。结果表明:围填海工程同时具有正负效应,且这些效应之间存在互相影响、互相促进或互相制约等关系;这些正负效应中,沿海地形改变程度、阻挡海浪侵袭能力、洄游路线占用和栖息地改变程度以及沿海土地面积增加量是关键节点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Analysis of the comprehensive influence of reclamation projects is one of the hotspots of marine scientific research in recent years.The main factors that affect the comprehensive influence of reclamation projects are drawn from the systematic combing to the works and references related to the reclamation and classified according to their properties.Based on these,and by using system dynamics theory and method as well,a causal feedback model is inveterately established for the comprehensive influence of reclamation projects through selecting typical causal feedback models and introducing the " key node identification".The discussion and analysis of this model show that the reclamation projects have both positive and negative effects that are interactional,mutual promotional or mutual conditional in their relations.Among these effects,the degree of coastal topographic change,the ability to withstand waves,the degrees of migratory route occupation and habitat change and the increment of coastal land area are the key nodes that play an important role in the analysis of reclamation project influence.更多还原