【摘要】 基于湖北省35个国家气象站1953-2012年的降水量数据,综合采用了GIS技术、线性预测、小波分析、Mann-kendall趋势检测、灰色关联度分析方法,对湖北省年降水量时空变化及其影响因子进行分析。研究结果表明:时间上,总体上湖北省年降水量以年均1mm/a的幅度减少,在代际上主要存在16年和14年的主要波动周期;空间分布上,降水量由南向北、山地向平原逐步递减,西南山区为降雨中心;空间上,降水量年际上整体微弱递减,西南区和江汉平原区递增,其余地区均递减,而季度变化上,符合亚热带季风气候的降水特点,冬季到春季、春季到夏季,降水量呈现明显的递增,到夏季增幅最大,夏季到秋季、秋季到冬季降水量递减,到冬季降水最低;成因分析如下:青藏高原指数、南方涛动和东亚夏季风指数对年降水量变化影响非常大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on Precipitation data of 35 national meteorological stations from 1953 to 2012 in Hubei Province, the methods,such as GIS, Linear prediction, Wavelet analysis, Mann-kendall test, Grey Relational Analysis, were Comprehensive employed to analyze temporal and spatial variation of precipitation and the factors. The results are as follows: Firstly, the mean annual precipitation was in a decrease trend and its gradient was 1mm/a,there had main wave period of 16 year and 14 year in the generation; Spatial distribution of precipitation from the south to the north, the mountains to the plains gradually decreasing, the southwest mountain as the rainfall center; Secondly, spatially,Precipitation, Global weak decrease in annual, Incremental increase in the southwest and Jianghan Plain, The rest of the region are declining, And quarterly changes is that, The precipitation characteristics of the subtropical monsoon climate, Winter to spring, spring to summer, precipitation is obviously increased,summer to autumn, autumn to winter rainfall, The lowest precipitation in winter; Genetic analysis is as follows: the index of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, Southern Oscillation and East Asian summer monsoon index had a greater impact on the annual precipitation change.更多还原