【摘要】 从生猪养殖农户角度归纳影响农户信贷约束的因素主要为三类:基本特征、养殖行为、信用情况,采用Heckman两阶段法,先通过Probit模型分析生猪养殖农户的信贷约束的影响因素,然后估计农户信贷需求数量,与农户实际获得的信贷数量之间的差额即为农户信贷需求缺口。实证分析显示:在农户基本特征变量中,户主年龄和劳动力数量都对农户信贷约束有显著的正向影响;在养殖行为变量中,生产性固定资产投资和生猪养殖年限对农户信贷约束都存在显著的负向影响;在信用情况中,借款情况和违约情况都对农户信贷约束产生正向影响,抵押情况对农户信贷约束产生负向影响。在此基础上,以获得足额贷款农户的信贷数据做OLS回归,估计出农户的信贷需求缺口为5169.4元,样本地区农户信贷约束比率为16.87%。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the perspective of pig breeding farmers,this article summarized that the factors affecting household credit constraints had mainly three categories :basic characteristics,breeding behavior,credit situation. Using two-stage method from Heckman,by Probit model this paper analyed the factors of farmers’ credit constraints,and estimated the number of households credit demand,last got the credit needs of farmers,which was the gap. Empirical analysis showed that,in the variables of farmer basic characteristics,the head of household age and amount of labor had significantly positive impacts on farmers’ credit constraints;in the variables of breeding behavioral,the investment of fixed asset and term of pig farming had significantly negative effects on farmers,credit constraints;in the case of credit,loan conditions and violations had positive impacts on farmers’ credit constraints,mortgage situation results had a negative impact on farmers’ credit constraints. On this basis,the paper did OLS regression by the data of obtaining full credit loans farmers,the estimated gap of credit demand was 5 169.4 Yuan,credit constrained ratio was 16.87%.更多还原