【摘要】 短期负荷预测的准确性对电力系统的安全运行和生产安排起着至关重要的作用。针对单一负荷预测方法较难准确预测电力负荷的情况,提出了一种新颖的组合预测方法。该方法采用混沌时间序列和基于RBF-ARX模型的预测方法对日负荷进行加权组合预测,并通过与单个预测方法进行比较,证明了该组合预测方法精度更高,相对误差更小。更多还原

【Abstract】 The accurate short-term load forecasting plays an important role in the security and operation planning of power systems. Because load forecasting couldn’t be satisfied by a single method. Therefore, a novel method of combination forecast based on the chaotic time series and the RBF-ARX model was presented. The simulation results show that the proposed method has higher precision and lower prediction error than that of the single chaotic time series forecasting and that of the prediction method based on RBF-ARX model, which proves that it is an effective method.更多还原