【摘要】 目的为了更好的指导现场监测工作,科学合理选取流动监测区域,本研究综合考虑多种与鼠疫流行和爆发相关的风险因子对鼠疫自然疫源地进行综合风险评估。方法以青海省海南州兴海县为例,提出一个鼠疫自然疫源地风险评估框架,选取风险因素和暴露因素共7个指标建立了鼠疫自然疫源地风险评估模型;基于空间信息技术提取风险因子,1 km栅格作为基本评价单元划分出风险等级,对喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫自然疫源地进行综合风险评估。结果分级风险评估结果直观显示兴海县境内鼠疫自然疫源地风险的空间分布及其风险强度,较高风险连续区域分布在唐乃亥乡和子科滩镇,高风险地区主要集中在兴海县的东部。鼠疫宿主动物潜在分布概率、路网密度、历史疫情爆发是重要的风险因素。结论多种风险因子的评估结果更全面,风险区域更具有针对性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective In order to provide guidance for field monitoring work and scientific selection of mobile surveillance area we made the comprehensive assessment on natural foci of plague basing on risk factors related to plague prevalence and outbreak.Methods Taking Xinghai County of Qinghai Province as example,we proposed a framework for plague natural foci risk assessment,7 indicators of risk factors and exposure factors were select for model building. Risk factors were extracted basing on spatial information technology. 1 km raster as basic evaluation unit,we classified the risk level and conducted the assessment on plague natural foci of marmota himalayana. Results Result from the assessment showed the spatial distribution and risk levels of plague natural foci in Xingahi County. Higher risk distributed in Tangnaihai township and Ziketan town,high risk areas were mainly concentrated in the east of Xinghai County. Potential distribution probability of plague host animals,road network density and historical outbreak were important risk factors. Conclusion Assessment basing on various risk factors can be more comprehensive and more specific for the risk areas.更多还原