【摘要】 目的初步建立各疫源地动物鼠疫流行预测的模型,针对各疫源地实际情况建立预警指标体系。方法黄鼠疫源地(达乌尔黄鼠疫源地、阿拉善黄鼠疫源地)、布氏田鼠疫源地、长爪沙鼠疫源地利用最优回归子集法进行指标筛选及风险分级,指数平滑法进行风险预测;喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地、青海田鼠疫源地利用加权移动平滑法预测动物鼠疫检菌阳性率。结果达乌尔黄鼠疫源地筛选出鼠密度、鼠体染蚤率、鼠体蚤指数、巢穴蚤染蚤率等四个指标;阿拉善黄鼠疫源地筛选出鼠体染蚤率、鼠体蚤指数、洞干蚤指数、巢穴蚤染蚤率、巢穴蚤指数等五个指标;长爪沙鼠疫源地定边县筛选出鼠密度、体蚤染蚤率、巢穴蚤染蚤率、降水等四个指标,其它疫源地监测指标与鼠疫的发生理论上无显著关系。风险等级分为流行、高风险、不流行三级。预测喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地2014~2015年检菌阳性率为11.35%、11.62%;青海田鼠疫源地2014~2015年检菌阳性率为0.69%、0.65%。选取动物鼠疫流行范围、流行强度、检菌率、血凝阳性检出率和滴度、主要宿主密度、蚤指数6项指标,按疫源地类型划分预警等级。结论黄鼠疫源地、布氏田鼠源地及长爪沙鼠疫源地筛选出更有效的监测指标预测动物鼠疫的流行;针对各疫源地实际情况分为四级预警。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To initially build predictive model of animal plague in each epidemic focus and establish warning index system according to the actual conditions of epidemic focus. Methods Best subset regression method was employed to conduct index selection and risk classification,exponential smoothing method was employed to conduct risk prediction in the focus of spermophilus dauricus,spermophilus alaschanicus,microtus brandti and meriones unguiculatus. Weighted move smoothing method was employed to detect positive rate of animal plague in the focus of marmota himalayana and marmota baibacina. Results Rat density,flea- carrying rate,flea index and nest flea- carrying rate were calculated in the Citellus dauricus focus; flea- carrying rate,flea index,burrow track flea index,nest flea- carrying rate and nest flea index were calculated in the Spermophilus alaschanicus focus; rat density,body flea- carrying rate,nest flea- carrying rate and precipitation were calculated in the Mongolian gerbil focus. There is no significant relationship between the index and animal plague in other focus. Risk classification can be divided into endemic,high risk,non- endemic. Predict bacteria positive rate was 11. 35% and 11. 62% in the Himalayan marmot focus from 2014 to 2015; bacteria positive rate was 0. 69% and 0. 65% in the microtus focus from 2014 to 2015. Prevalent area,epidemic strength,detection rate of bacteria,hemagglutination positive rate and titer,main host density and flea index were selected to classify the warning levels according to focus types. Conclusion Efficient monitoring indicators were selected from spermophilus,microtus brandti and meriones unguiculatus focus to predict the animal plague. Warning levels can be classified as four according to the situation of each focus.更多还原