【摘要】 基于Hummel和Klenow(2005)分解方法,利用2000~2010年间中国制造业对43个经济体的出口贸易数据,采用核密度作图揭示了若干典型事实:广延边际和价格边际对中国制造业的出口增长产生显著影响,且作用逐渐增加,集约边际和数量边际的影响十分有限。引入汇率因素扩展了一个企业异质性贸易模型,厘清了汇率及其他相关因素对出口增长模式的影响机制。理论分析认为,汇率下降即出口国货币升值将对集约边际产生负效应,而对广延边际的影响无法确定。基于理论框架并考虑汇率及其滞后因素和波动性,考察了不同贸易成本对各贸易边际的影响路径。实证结果表明:汇率主要作用于集约边际,汇率滞后项则显著影响广延边际;汇率波动性显示出某种相反作用:一方面抑制集约边际,另一方面却促进广延边际。进一步探索汇率对中国不同贸易方式的影响发现,人民币升值促使加工贸易出口份额上升而其他贸易方式出口份额下降。这些结论的政策内涵将有助于调整中国出口贸易结构,化解人民币升值可能带来的风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the decomposition method by Hummel and Klenow(2005), the paper draws the kernel density graphs by using China’s export data with 43 economies from 2001 to 2010 to find some stylized facts that the extensive margin and price margin have more and more significant impacts on the export enhancement, while the intensive margin and the quantity margin have limited effects. The paper extends the trade model of heterogeneous firms by introducing the exchange rate to explain the impact mechanism of exchange rate and the related factors on export enhancement. The theoretical analysis finds that the appreciation of the exporter’s currency negatively affects the intensive margin, but the influence on extensive margin cannot be determined. The paper also examines the different impact paths of different trade costs on various margins by considering the exchange rate as well as its lagged factors and volatility. The empirical results show that the exchange rate has a significant impact on the intensive margin and its lagged term mainly affects the extensive margin. However, the volatility of exchange rate, on one hand, restricts the intensive margin; on the other hand, it promotes the extensive margin. As for the effects of the exchange rate on China’s trade modes, it is found that the appreciation of China’s currency promotes the export share of processing trade, but that of other modes declines. All these findings have political implications for China to adjust the trade structure of export and alleviate the potential risks of the appreciation of China’s currency.更多还原