【摘要】 利用长江三角洲1961—2013年逐日降水资料,采用极值分布、耿贝尔分布和皮尔逊分布等频率分析方法推算极端降水各重现期概率强度值,设计五年、十年、百年一遇情景,结合适合长三角地区的极端降水阈值和下垫面数据,从致灾因子危险性,典型承灾体脆弱性和暴露频率三方面评价了长江三角洲地区极端降水潜在风险。研究发现:城市化最高的中部地区脆弱性最高,分布着大量耕地的北部地区次之,南部地区由于林地众多,脆弱性相对较小;各种情景下,随着重现期的增大,极端降水风险显著提高,整体上来说,南部城市可接受风险较高,北部与中部城市可接受风险较低。研究方法可为极端降水引发的雨洪灾害研究提供新的思路,研究结果可为长三角城市化过程中土地覆被转变、城市排水管网建设以及区域防灾减灾计划提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Combined with the daily rainfall records during 1961-2013 and underground data in Yangtze River Delta,the methods of Extreme Value,Gumbel and Pearson- Ⅲ distribution were used to calculate extreme rainfall probability value of different return periods,and the probability of extreme rainfall in five years,ten years and one hundred years were designed to analyze the potential risks from the perspectives of Hazard classification,typical bearing Vulnerability and Exposure frequency.The research indicates that the central section which was urbanized most experienced the most serious vulnerability,the northern section which distributed a large number of cultivated land ranked second,the southern section experienced the lowest vulnerability because of the distribution of large amounts of woodland.Based on the three scenarios,as the return period increased,the extreme rainfall risk increased a lot.Significantly speaking,the southern section could withstand higher risks while the northern and central parts accept lower risks.In summary,the methods could be referenced when flood hazard risks,which was induced by the extreme rainfall,were to be analyzed,meanwhile,the results might facilitate the land cover change while urbanization,underground pipe network construction and regional disaster mitigation planning.更多还原