【摘要】 为实现对宏观负荷的饱和时间点、饱和规模的预测,提出了一种基于改进Verhulst模型的饱和负荷预测方法。针对饱和负荷预测时间跨度长、负荷规模增长呈现"S"型的特点,将等维新息递补技术引入灰色Verhulst模型,使预测结果能够更科学合理地反映用电需求的发展规律。采用残差修正的思想,构造Verhulst残差修正模型,实现对用电需求的分析与预测。最后,通过实例分析说明该方法的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to forecasting load saturation time and scale, an improved Verhulst model is presented in this paper. For power demand growth in the size of an S-type characteristics and a long time span saturation load forecasting,equal dimensional information is introduced into Verhulst model based on the "inertia principle" of load development,making forecasting results reasonably reflect the development law of power demand. According to the idea of residual error correction, a new improved Verhulst model is constructed to analysis the power demand. At last, the reliability is validated by an actual example.更多还原