【摘要】 基于新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,提出了改进的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,其主体思路即尽可能用最新的信息代替陈旧的信息,在预测的精确度与预测的收敛性之间达到最佳的平衡.文中算例对基于GM(1,1)模型、新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型及改进的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的风速预测结果进行了仿真分析,预测结果证明了所提出方法的有效性.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on metabolic GM( 1,1) model,an improved metabolic GM( 1,1) model is proposed which requires the substituting of new information for old one as far as possible,and a best balance between accuracy and astringency of prediction can be reached. The results of wind speed prediction based on the GM( 1,1)model,metabolic GM( 1,1) model and the improved metabolic GM( 1,1) model are simulated and analyzed,which proves the effectiveness of the new method.更多还原