【摘要】 中国承诺2030年前后二氧化碳排放达到峰值,碳排放增长"天花板"的量化确定与必然的产业调整强化了中国贸易排放效应和碳泄露问题的重要性。本文推导开放经济体SRIO模型,测算各类能源碳排放系数来计算中国工业行业净出口隐含碳排放强度,并作图对比高低碳行业贸易开放与碳排放的关系;然后基于2000-2011年20个工业行业的面板数据,构建模型回归分析不同行业贸易开放对碳排放的影响与碳泄露问题,并加入职工人数、研发强度、经济活动强度等控制变量验证结论的可靠性。结果显示,我国工业行业整体和低净出口隐合碳行业存在"环境库兹涅兹曲线"(EKC),但高净出口隐含碳行业未出现倒"U"型的EKC;低净出口隐含碳行业对外贸易开放度提高有助于改善环境污染,而高净出口隐含碳行业贸易开放则加剧了环境污染,从工业行业整体看,外贸开放有助于改善环境污染,同时弹性值差异说明高净出口隐含碳行业对环境污染的负面效应制约了工业行业整体的环境改善效果。本文引入贸易开放与工业增加值交叉项检验工业行业碳泄露问题,发现低净出口隐含碳行业和工业行业整体在对外开放过程中没有出现碳泄露现象,但是高净出口隐含碳行业的碳泄露问题回归结果不能得到确认;通过构建虚拟变量的检验结果显示,我国工业行业可能存在"污染天堂"效应。我国需要充分发挥贸易开放与环境效应的良性互动关系,同时注重经济新常态下结构性环境规制;改善人力资本占比结构,实现减排路径从产业结构优化延伸至技术创新,降低出口隐含碳强度,获取新常态下经济转型发展所需的碳排放空间。更多还原

【Abstract】 China promises that carbon dioxide emissions will peak in 2030,so carbon emissions growth "ceiling" and inevitable industrial restructuring reinforce the importance of trade emissions effect and carbon leakage for China.This paper derives SRIO model and calculates the emission coefficients of energy and Chinese industrial net carbon emissions embodied in exports in high-carbon and low-carbon industries.Then this paper builds panel data model based on 20 industries from 2000 to 2011,to analyze carbon emissions effect of trade openness and carbon leakage,as well as verify the reliability of conclusions by adding control variables such as employees,R&D intensity and economic activities.The results show that there is a EKC in China’s industrial sector as a whole and low-carbon industry but there is not inverted "U"-shaped EKC in high-carbon industry,and trade openness of low-carbon industry helps to improve environment,but high-carbon industry’s trade openness exacerbates pollution and for the industrial sector as a whole,trade openness helps to improve the environment too.And the elastic value explains that the negative effect of high-carbon industry restricts environmental pollution to be improved in overall industrial sectors.This paper analyzes carbon leakage with cross-term of trade openness and industrial added value,which shows that there is not carbon leakage phenomenon for low-carbon industry and industrial sector as a whole,but the carbon leakage problem cannot be confirmed for high-carbon industry.And the test result shows that,by building a dummy variable,there may be "pollution haven" effect of China’s industries.Policy recommendations are mainly to exert positive interaction between trade openness and environmental effects and pay attention to structural adjustment,to improve human capital ratio structure and achieve reduction path extended from industrial structure optimization to technology innovation,and to reduce industrial carbon emissions intensity to get a greater carbon emissions space under China’s new normal of economy.更多还原