【摘要】 为了找出青藏高原与东西部各分区大气热源的变化规律,利用美国国家环境预报中心的月平均温度场、比湿场、风场以及位势高度场的再分析格点资料,采用"倒算法"计算得到高原地区月平均大气热源原始格点资料,对比分析青藏高原全区与东西部各分区大气热源在1948~2011年的年际和年代际变化特征,证实青藏高原大气热源的时空分布具有显著的差异性,研究结果表明:青藏高原全区和东西各分区的大气热源均表现出明显的年际振荡特征。在变化周期方面,青藏高原全区大气热源存在14年的显著周期,高原东部地区大气热源存在16年的显著周期,高原西部地区大气热源存在8年的显著周期。在变化趋势方面,青藏高原西部地区和东部地区1989年前,大气热源变化趋势相同,1989年后,大气热源变化趋势相反。在大气热源各个季节的空间分布方面,青藏高原全区大气热源各个季节热源热汇分布特征不同,春季西部地区出现热源中心,夏季东部地区出现热源中心,秋季东部地区出现热汇中心,冬季出现西部地区热源中心和东部地区热汇中心共存;在变化趋势突变检测方面,青藏高原全区大气热源在1989年存在显著的突变,西部地区大气热源1976年左右存在显著的突变,东部地区大气热源在1990年左右存在显著的突变。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to find out the interannual and decades variation regulation of atmospheric heat source over Tibetan Plateau whole area and different regions. Based on monthly mean temperature,specific humidity,wind,and height reanalysis data during the period of 1948 January to 2011 April,which were originated from NCEP,we analyzed and compared the spatial and temporal distribution’s characteristics of atmospheric heat source over Tibetan Plateau whole area and different regions in the last 63 years. The result proved the obvious differenceof spatial and temporal distribution which is originated from the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and different parts. Finally,the result of the analysis showed that: There existed obvious annual oscillation characteristics and decadal variation in the series of the Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat source annual variation,with the same discipline over the western region and eastern region. With the method of the maximum entropy spectral estimation,we extracted a 14-year periodic cycle in the procession of the Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat source annual variation,and compared it with a 8-year periodic cycle over the western region and a 16-year periodic cycle over the eastern region. In the aspects of the interannual time scale,the western region and eastern region changed in the same pattern before 1989 and the opposite pattern after 1989. The result of atmospheric heat source spatial distribution showed that the spatial distribution was obviously different in different seasons. The atmospheric heat source center appeared in the western region in spring,but it appeared in the eastern region in summer,and the atmospheric heat convergence center appeared in the eastern region in autumn,however the atmospheric heat source center and the atmospheric heat convergence center coexisted in the winter. Finally the result of MK-test showed that there existed obvious abrupt change in the procession of the Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat source annual variation around 1989,in the comparison with the obvious abrupt change of western region around 1976 and the obvious abrupt change of eastern region around 1990.更多还原