【摘要】 目的了解国家建立的传染病自动预警系统在安徽省的运行状况,探讨预警参数调整前后的预警效果。方法对2009~2014年安徽省传染病自动预警监测数据进行描述性分析,根据预警灵敏度和阳性预测值评估预警参数调整前后的预警效果。结果 2009~2014年传染病自动预警系统共发出101 596条预警信号,响应率为99.94%,24h响应率为88.60%,平均响应时间为1.48h。预警参数调整前后,预警灵敏度分别为81.71%和89.27%,差异无统计学意义(χ2=3.26,P=0.071);在预警参数调整前后均有暴发/流行的5个病种中,流行性感冒阳性预测值有所上升,麻疹、流行性腮腺炎、其它感染性腹泻病和手足口病阳性预测值均有所下降,差异无统计学意义。结论传染病自动预警系统运行总体平稳,调整警阈值后,预警灵敏度和阳性预测值无明显变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To understand the performance of China Infectious Disease Automated- alert and Response System( CIDARS) in Anhui province,and to evaluate the efficacy before and after the adjustment of parameters in CIDARS.Methods A descriptive analysis was used to analyze the data collected from the monitoring program during the period from2009 to 2014 for the evaluation of the system by comparing the efficacy before and after the adjustment of parameters. Results A total of 101 596 alerting signals were generated in the system in Anhui province with the responding rate of 99.97%,the responding rate within 24 hours of 88. 60% and the median responding time of 1. 48 hours. The sensitivity of the system were 81. 71% and 89. 27% before and after the adjustment of parameters,with no significant difference( χ2 = 3.26,P = 0. 071). The positive predictive value of early- warning signals for influenza had increased,while for measles,epidemic mumps,diarrhea and HFMD had decreased. Conclusion CIDARS had a good performance in Anhui province. The efficacy of CIDARS had no significant difference before and after the adjustment of parameters.更多还原