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基于通径分析的黄淮海平原粮食产量驱动因素研究

Study on Driving Factors of Grain Yield in the Huang- Huai- Hai Plain Based on Path Analysis

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【作者】 刘亚琦刘加珍张金萍陈永金徐梦晨王成祥

【Author】 Liu Yaqi;Liu Jiazhen;Zhang Jinping;Chen Yongjin;Xu Mengchen;Wang Chengxiang;School of Environment and Planning,Liaocheng University;

【机构】 聊城大学环境与规划学院

【摘要】 采用通径分析方法,对影响黄淮海平原粮食产量的14个驱动因素进行统计分析,利用SPSS软件建立各因素线性回归模型,得出农业用电量、粮食作物播种面积、受灾面积、年平均气温、年底耕地面积5个因素对粮食产量的影响作用较大,进而提出要从提高农业机械化水平、稳定粮食面积、做好自然灾害预防工作、增加有效灌溉面积等多方面入手提高黄淮海平原的粮食产量。

【Abstract】 The effects of 14 factors on grain yield in the Huang- Huai- Hai Plain were analyzed by path analysis in this paper,and then the linear regression models of them were established by SPSS software. The results showed that the agricultural electricity consumption,sowing area of grain crops,disaster area,average annual temperature and cultivated land area in the end of the year had larger effects on grain yield. It was put forward to increase the grain yield in the Huang- Huai- Hai Plain through improving the level of agricultural mechanization,stabling yield,preventing natural disasters,increasing the effective irrigation area and other aspects.

【基金】 山东省软科学项目“聊城市生态农业发展模式与对策研究(2009RKB01052)”资助
  • 【文献出处】 山东农业科学 ,Shandong Agricultural Sciences , 编辑部邮箱 ,2015年01期
  • 【分类号】S114
  • 【被引频次】3
  • 【下载频次】126
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