【摘要】 面对突发性灾害事件,及时、全面了解公众的风险感知水平对于实现有效的风险沟通和危机管理具有重要意义。本文将网络搜索作为反映公众在突发性灾害事件下风险感知水平的指标,利用搜索引擎关键词分析方法,以汶川地震、玉树地震和雅安地震为对象,从时间演变和空间分布两个维度分析了地震后公众风险感知的动态特征。研究结果表明,突发性灾害事件发生后,公众风险感知迅速跳上高位,并且集中在受灾害事件直接影响地区,之后呈指数形式快速下降,同时逐渐向非受灾地区扩散。文章最后提出政策建议,危机管理要针对公众风险感知的动态变化进行调整,根据不同时期、不同地域公众的风险感知特征,引导公众积极克服危机。更多还原

【Abstract】 During unexpected disaster events,understanding the public’s risk perception in a timely and truthful manner is of critical importance in risk communication and crisis management. This paper makes use of online search as a proxy for indicating the level of risk perception and adopts the method of search engine keyword analysis. By studying the cases of three major earthquakes in China,this paper investigates the risk perception dynamics after the earthquake,from both a temporal and a spatial point of view. Results suggest that the public’s risk perception surges high immediately after the earthquake’s occurrence and concentrates in areas that are subject to direct impact of the disaster. Then the risk perception level drops exponentially and diffuses to other areas gradually. Managerial suggestions are made that public’s risk perception should be put under surveillance so that crisis management can be adjusted accordingly. It is worthy to draw on information on the temporal and geographic characteristics of risk perception in helping the public overcome crises.更多还原