【摘要】 论文对中国移动电话区域扩散差异及其影响因素进行了实证研究,利用三个扩散模型和基尼系数指标对1997-2009年间的扩散速度、扩散密度进行比较研究,并用面板模型对扩散分布的影响因素进行定量分析,结果表明移动电话的扩散速度不是匀速,也不是单一的加速或减速,而是呈波浪式的。在整个扩散期内,各省的平均扩散速度差异不大,相对而言,东、西部地区略高,中部略低。城市化、固定电话与移动电话的互补程度以及使用成本对各区域移动电话扩散影响显著,其中使用资费比首次购买成本的作用更明显,这为新一代在我国的发展预测提供一些依据和启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper makes an empirical research into the regional diffusion differences and influencing factors of China Mobile phone. By using three diffusion models and the Gini coefficient indicators to compare the diffusion speed and diffusion density from 1997 to 2009,and using panel model to analyze the influence factors of the diffusion distribution,the paper concludes that the diffusion rate of mobile phone is neither constant nor a single acceleration or deceleration,but a wavy style. During the diffusion period,the difference of average diffusion rate of all provinces is not obvious. Comparatively speaking,the diffusion rate of the eastern and western regions in our country is higher than that of the central area. Complementary degree and the use-cost among urbanization,the fixed telephone and mobile phone have a significant effect on the diffusion of mobile phones. The effect of use-cost is more obvious than the first purchase cost. The results of this research provide some bases and revelation to forecast the development of new generation technology in China.更多还原