【摘要】 基于遥感影像、社会经济统计数据及地理空间数据,以耕地流失显著的江苏省苏锡常地区为例,在分析耕地流失时空特征的基础上,不仅剖析了驱动耕地数量减少的宏观政策与社会经济因素,还重点研究了影响耕地流失格局的微观空间因子。研究结果表明:①研究区耕地数量经历了快速减少-缓慢减少-加速减少的变化轨迹,这与不同时期国家宏观政策的重大调整紧密相关;1990-2010年间耕地流失总量为24.46万hm2,主要流向为建设用地与水库坑塘;②城镇人口的激增和区域经济的飞速发展,是驱动研究区耕地数量锐减的主要社会经济因素;③高程因子、距离与交通通达因子、邻域因子均不同程度影响耕地流失的空间格局,其中占主导的是到中心城区的距离、交通便利性以及邻域效应的驱动作用;④未来区域规划应考虑通过产业布局调整和区域整体规划以促进城乡社会经济的协调发展,同时还应重视提高工矿用地以及与三产相关的建设用地的集约利用水平,促进耕地资源开发的合理、有序。更多还原

【Abstract】 By coupling geospatial data with socio-economic statistics,we analyzed spatio-temporal dynamic patterns and driving mechanisms of cropland loss in Su- Xi- Chang region,Jiangsu Province,China from 1990 to 2010. This region has experienced recent dramatic economic and spatial restructuring. We highlight policy and socio-economic factors driving declines in cropland area and physical determinants affecting the spatial distribution of cropland loss using multivariable and logistic regression methods. The major finding is that in the past 20 years,the area of cropland has gone through rapid-moderate-accelerating loss stages,strongly influenced by national development strategies and polices regarding land use. The cropland encroached for urban construction and aquaculture reached 244.58thousand hactares,and the increase in the urban population and the boom in regional economies were the major drivers of cropland loss. From the perspective of geophysical determinants,the spatial distribution of cropland loss has mainly been influenced by accessibility to the city center and transport network,together with constraints inherent in existing land-use patterns. These results imply that the high-efficiency use of cropland and integrated planning across urban- rural harmonious development are crucial for regional sustainability.更多还原