【摘要】 饱和电力需求是电网规划中确定电网健康发展最终规模的关键性指标,能为电网规划提供重要信息,指导电网的建设和输电线路的合理布局。鉴于索洛模型在经济学的规模报酬及劳动产出问题中的成功应用,借鉴索洛模型的思路研究饱和电力需求规模问题,通过引入以产业结构及用电结构为表征的结构效应因素,同时结合多种规模效应及技术进步因素对索洛模型进行扩展,在此基础上建立了长期均衡预测模型。以我国南方某大型都市为例,应用本文所提出的预测模型,对该地区的未来饱和用电规模进行预测,结果表明该模型能够结合社会经济、电网现状及未来政策,对未来饱和电力需求进行预测,是一项有益的探索。更多还原

【Abstract】 Saturated power consumption is a pivotal index in determining the final network scale in power system planning, which can provide significant information for system planning and give guidance for gird construction and rational distribution of power transmission lines. From the inspiration of Solow model which is successfully applied to economic problems, power consumption forecasting was done with extended Solow long-term equilibrium model through broadening and revising the Solow model, in which industrial structure and power consumption structure were used to represent the structural effects; meanwhile, several scale effects and the progress of technology was combined into extend Solow mode. The new model has high forecasting accuracy, which is able to solve future saturated power consumption problems with the consideration of social and economic data, power grid status and future policies. From the example of Eastern China, saturated power consumption was explored which proves a meaningful reference on saturated load forecasting of regional grids.更多还原