【摘要】 通过辨识影响福建省枇杷生长发育和产量的主要致灾因子,分析枇杷对气象灾害的敏感性和暴露性,考虑种植区的防灾减灾能力,构建出枇杷气象灾害综合风险评估指标体系,利用枇杷种植区1971—2011年气象资料,1992—2011年枇杷种植面积、产量及其他社会经济资料,采用层次分析法和熵权系数法融合方法计算各风险指标的权重及各评估单元的风险指数,进而构建枇杷气象灾害的综合风险评估模型,应用GIS技术制作出风险精细区划图,评估枇杷气象灾害的综合风险。结果表明:致灾危险性对综合风险的影响最大,起主要作用;重度以上的综合风险主要分布在福建省5个主要山脉的中高海拔山区以及枇杷种植面积大的莆田市、福清市、云霄县,轻度综合风险区主要分布在中南部沿海县市的低海拔种植区(除种植大县和东山县外),其余种植区的综合风险属中度。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to identify the risk of loquat growing on complicated terrain in Fujian Province,to avoid planting in high risk areas,integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province is conducted using disaster risk analysis theory.A risk evaluation index system for meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province is constructed,based on the identification of the major disaster-causing factors affecting loquat growth and yield,and from the analysis of the sensitivity and exposed property of loquat to meteorology disasters,and the disaster prevention and mitigation capability of loquat growing regions in the Province.In addition,the risk index of each evaluation unit is calculated based on the annual meteorological data,loquat planting areas and yield,and other socio-economic data in loquat growing region in Fujian Province,and by using the weight of risk indices determined by analytic hierarchy process method and entropy weight coefficient method.Therefore,an integrated risk evaluation model of meteorological disasters is established and a fine risk division map is drawn with GIS technique.The growing region is divided into four-risk-grade areas,including mild risk area,moderate risk area,severe risk area and severity risk area.The result shows that,from the aspect of risk factors composition for the meteorological disasters of loquat,potential hazard of the disaster-causing factors is the determinant factor influencing the synthetic risk,the vulnerability of the planting area takes the second place,and the damage prevention and mitigation capacity only plays an alleviative role.In the Province,loquat growth regions with severe and more severe integrated risk of meteorological disasters for planting loquat are mainly distributed in the mountain areas with mid-high elevation of the five major mountain ranges,and counties with large growing areas including Putian City,Fuqing City and Yunxiao County;the regions with light integrated risk are mainly in the coastal counties with low elevation in the middle south of the Province(except large planting counties and Dongshan County);and the regions with moderate integrated risk are distributed in the other areas of the Province.Based on the risk evaluation results combined with loquat damage examples in history,it could be verified that the risk evaluation and division results is consistent with the actual situation.The results could offer scientific basis for the adjustment and optimization of loquat planting distribution,and for reducing the integrated risk of loquat planting in Fujian Province.更多还原