【摘要】 基坑存在多种失效模式,考虑失效模式之间的相关性,双界限法计算体系失效概率存在计算结果区间范围较大的弊端。利用均匀试验和非参数回归方法建立响应面,在响应面的基础上,对Monte Carlo模拟生成的随机参数进行插值,得到各个失效模式指标,结合Pearson相关系数检验两两失效模式之间的相关性,用条件概率方法计算基坑体系失效概率,提出了基于条件概率考虑多失效模式相关的基坑体系可靠度分析方法。在此基础上,通过1个典型算例进行对比分析,计算结果表明,该方法不仅计算简便,而且结果可靠,其结果可为基坑体系可靠度分析理论提供一条新的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are many failure modes in the foundation pit engineering. Considering the correlation between failure modes, the range of system failure probability is large using the Breadth Border method or the narrow bounds method. The response surface is established by using the uniform test and nonparametric regression method. On this basis, in order to obtain the index of each failure mode, the random parameters generated by the Monte Carlo simulation are interpolated. Combined with the Pearson correlation coefficient, the correlation is tested between failure modes. Considering the correlation of multiple failure modes, the system reliability analysis method of foundation pit engineering based on conditional probability is put forward. As a typical example, a system failure probability of foundation pit is analyzed by using the conditional probability method. A case study shows that the method is simple and reliable in calculation, so as to provide a new way for the system reliability theory of foundation pit.更多还原