【摘要】 当前人口老龄化带来社会问题日益引起社会各界的广泛关注,文章在分析中国人口结构变迁和老龄化表现的基础上,利用2003~2010年中国省际面板数据,采用门限面板模型,就人口老龄化对养老保险可持续支付能力的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明:人口老龄化和养老保险可持续支付能力之间不是简单的线性相关,在不同的门限区置内,人口老龄化对养老保险可持续支付能力的影响表现出不同的特征,而且在东、中、西部地区内部,人口老龄化程度依次降低,人口老龄化对养老保险可持续支付能力的影响程度也各不相同。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present,social problems caused by population aging have increasingly drawn wide attention of all social sectors. Based on the analysis of China’ s population structure change and population aging,the paper makes an empirical research about the influence of population aging on the sustainable payment ability of endowment insurance by using provincial panel data from 2003 to 2010 in China and the threshold panel model. The relationship between population aging and the sustainable payment ability of endowment insurance is not a simple linear correlation. In different threshold regions,different features can be found in the relationship,and in China’s eastern,central and western regions,with their population aging degree successively decreases,population aging has different impacts on the sustainable payment ability of endowment insurance.更多还原