【摘要】 针对民航收益管理单航段多票价级别允许超订并包含群订情况的舱位控制问题,将考虑顾客到达率和退订率预测误差的稳健模型,与不考虑需求预测误差的名义模型和改进的EMSR模型进行比较.模拟结果表明,当存在需求预测误差时,最优稳健策略比最优名义策略能获得更高的期望收益,并且随着误差水平的增大,稳健策略优于名义策略的效果越明显.同时指出,稳健策略更适合在剩余座位数较少或剩余销售时间较长的情况下应用.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the theories of Markov decision processes(MDP) and robust optimization,a robust capacity control model based overbooking and group booking of single-leg flight(abbreviated as R-MDP)is set up.At the same time,the nominal MDP model and the modified expected marginal seat revenue(EMSR) model which ignore the estimation error are also provided.Numerical results illustrate that the robust model can significantly improve the expected revenue when demand estimation errors exist,and the robust strategy performs better than the nominal strategy when the estimation error is bigger.Numerical examples also reveal that the smaller the number of remaining seats or the longer the remaining time,the better performance the robust strategy will be.更多还原