【摘要】 基于成都市1980年至2013年的生产总值及一、二、三产业值样本数据,运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和索洛经济增长模型,对成都市产业结构、经济增长与生产要素的相关性进行实证检验,定量分析三次产业对经济增长的贡献率和拉动经济增长的百分比.研究表明:目前成都市产业结构处于"三二一"顺序的工业化后期阶段,最近几年第三产业是经济增长的主要动力.然而,随着第三产业结构的不断扩张,势必会使第一产业和第二产业对经济规模的正效应下降,最终把经济带入衰退的境地.因此,要使成都市的经济长期稳定增长必须进一步优化调整产业结构.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on Cobb-Douglas production function and Solow growth model, the GDP and the statistical data of the first, second and tertiary industries in Chengdu from 1980 to 2013 are econometrically modeled and analyzed. The relation of industrial structure, economic growth and factors of production is empirically validated; the contribution rate and the stimulating percentage to economic growth of the tertiary industry are comparatively analyzed. The results have shown that the current industry structure in Chengdu is in a "321" sequence of the late industrialization stage. In the past Chengdu’s economic growth was mainly driven by the tertiary sector. However, the expansion of the tertiary industry structure will reduce the positive effects of the primary and secondary industries on economy scale, and eventually bring economy into recession situation. Therefore, to make a long-term stable and faster economic growth, the industrial structure should be further adjusted and optimized.更多还原