【摘要】 目的探讨气象因素与手足口病发病的相关性及其相关程度。方法采用Poisson回归进行气象因素与手足口病发病的单因素分析,多因素分析则采用广义相加模型。结果手足口病发病数与日平均气温和日最低气温表现为线性相关趋势,与日最高气温、日最低气湿、日照时数之间表现为曲线相关趋势。具体表现为,当日最高气温在低于29℃时,随着气温的升高,手足口病发生危险上升,高于29℃时发病危险性将下降;最小相对湿度在小于50%以及大于等于60%时,手足口病的发生危险性随最小相对湿度的增加而上升,在50%~60%期间手足口病的发生危险性小幅下降;日照时数在5~10 h之间与手足口病的发生呈负相关,大于等于10 h时则呈正相关。同时,Poisson回归分析结果显示,手足口病的发生与气压、风速呈负相关。结论大连市气温、气湿、日照时数等气象因素对手足口病的发生有影响,因此,在建立手足口病预测模型时,应考虑气象因素的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the relationship between climate parameters and hand foot and mouth disease and the effects of climate parameters on hand foot and mouth disease in Dalian city. Methods Poisson regression was carried out for one way analysis and generalized additive models was established to analyze the relationship between climate parameters and hand foot and mouth disease. Results Average temperature and minimum temperature showed linear correlation with hand foot and mouth disease. Maximum temperature,minimum humidity,sunshine hours and hand foot and mouth disease related to curves. When maximum temperature below 29℃,there was a significant increase in the risk of hand foot and mouth disease. But the risk of hand foot and mouth disease decreased when maximum temperature above 29℃. When minimum humidity was below 50% or above 60%,there was a significant increase in the risk of hand foot and mouth disease. But the risk of hand foot and mouth disease decreased when minimum humidity between 50% and 60%. When sunshine hours were longer than 5 hours and shorter than 10 hours,there was a negative correlation with hand foot and mouth disease. But when sunshine hours were longer than 10 hours,there was a positive correlation with hand foot and mouth disease. According to Poisson regression,hand foot and mouth disease was negatively correlated with air pressure and wind speed. Conclusion Climate parameters are influenced on hand foot and mouth disease in Dalian,so inclusion of climate parameters could strengthen the predictive power of the model for hand foot and mouth disease in Dalian.更多还原