【摘要】 目的:分析福建省城镇职工医保统筹基金运行状况并对风险进行预测,为医保管理部门制定防范基金支付风险政策提供依据。方法:收集2001—2012年福建省城镇职工医保各统筹地区统筹基金收入和支出数据,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对各统筹地区统筹基金收入、支出进行预测。结果:各统筹地区统筹基金支出的年平均增长率都高于收入的增长率,预测从2013年开始,陆续有多个统筹地区统筹基金将出险,不够支付。结论:建议相关部门加强医疗保险基金监管力度,建立统筹基金预警平台,保证基金安全健康运行。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objectives:To analyze funds operation of urban employee basic medical insurance in Fujian and predict the fund risk,provide references for the medical insurance management department designing the policies for preventing funding payment risks.Methods:Statistical data of funds operation of Urban Employees Basic Medical Insurance in Fijian Province from 2001 to 2012 was collected, GM(1, 1) model was used to predict expense and income of pooling funds.Results:The average yearly growth rates of expense of pooling funds surpass income of pooling funds. The deficits would happen in some pooling regions of Fujian since 2013.Conclusion:It is recommended for relevant departments to strengthen the supervision of the medical insurance fund, establish the earlywarning system of pooling fund and ensure that the fund runs safely and healthy.更多还原