【摘要】 结合甲型H1N1流感特点,建立了基于元胞自动机的异质个体甲型H1N1流感传播模型,并给出了该模型的动态仿真过程.异质即考虑到不同个体在传染性、对疾病抵抗能力等方面的差异.进而,从网络动力学的角度考虑了个体相互作用之间的关系,包括感染甲型H1N1流感死亡者占总数的比例随时间的变化以及甲型H1N1流感消失所需要的时间.本文计算出的病死率为0.0037,与中华人民共和国卫生部官网提供的甲型H1N1流感病毒的病死率0.004接近,说明了模型的合理性和有效性.模型及计算结果,可为疫情发展趋势的预测、以及政府制定干预疫情的有效措施提供可靠的依据.更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper we present a H1N1 influenza A model with spatial heterogeneity based on cellular automata(CA),and given the dynamics simulation of the model.Heterogeneity is considering the diversity on the infectious and disease resistance in different individuals.Furthermore,take into account the interaction between individuals from the network dynamics,including with time passed,the proportion of those infected by H1N1 influenza A died into the total relationship,and H1N1 influenza A disappearing time.This H1N1 influenza A model calculated mortality rate was 0.0037 is closer to 0.004 provided by the official website of the ministry of health,PRC,showing that the model is reasonable and effective.Model simulate results avail of predicting the epidemic development trend,and providing a reliable basis to government intervention effective measures in the epidemic development.更多还原