【摘要】 利用宁夏回族自治区20个气象站自建站以来到2012年共52a的降水数据资料,运用趋势线、滑动平均等数理分析方法对宁夏52a以来的降水变化特征进行了分析,并应用降水Z指数和正负20%的降水距平指标对宁夏的旱涝灾害特征进行了分析。最后基于信息预测理论的对称性及可公度法,对宁夏未来的旱涝灾害进行了趋势判断。结果表明:(1)宁夏52a年降水量以8.57mm/10a的速度递减,从20世纪90年代起干旱化趋势明显。(2)宁夏旱涝灾害交替发生,旱涝出现的频率为32.7%和28.7%,降水正常年份仅占38.5%。(3)宁夏旱涝灾害的发生具有显著对称性周期特征,未来发生旱灾的可能年份是2014和2015年,发生涝灾的可能年份是2017年。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to 52-year precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from their establishments in 2012,the mathematical analysis methods such as the trend line method and 5-year moving average method were applied to analyze the precipitation variation characteristics in more than 50 years,and the precipitation Zindex and the precipitation anomaly indicators of plus or minus 20%points were also used to analyze the characteristics of droughts and floods in the region,then a trend judgment of the droughts and floods was made based on the symmetry of information forecast theory and commensurable calculation method.The results showed:(1)The precipitation in more than 50 years of Ningxia region was reduced at a rate of 8.57mm/10 a,and the arid trend was obvious since 1990s;(2)The drought and flood disasters occurred alternately,the frequency of drought and flood was 32.7% and 28.7%,respectively,and it was only 38.5%in a normal year;(3)The droughts and floods occured with obvious characteristics of symmetry cycle,the drought years may occur in 2014 and 2015,floods may occur in 2017.更多还原