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基于GM(1,1)模型的我国若干节能减排政策评价研究

Evaluation Research on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Policies Based on the GM(1, 1) Model

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【作者】 陆敏李岩岩

【Author】 LU Min;LI Yanyan;Department of Statistics, Nanjing Audit University;College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics;

【机构】 南京审计学院统计系南京航空航天大学经济管理学院

【摘要】 选取1995~2010年高耗能行业的统计数据,运用灰色模型从效率视角评价了我国四个重要节能减排政策的实施效果。研究发现,高耗能行业的节能减排政策效率显著,有助于实现我国的节能减排目标;短期内,经济快速发展带来的能耗指标的攀升会暂时掩盖节能减排政策效果,但长期来看效率显著;应根据行业特性构建细分的节能减排政策,提高政策效率。

【Abstract】 Based on the statistic data of energy-intensive industries from 1995 to 2010, this article utilizes the grey model to evaluate four energy conservation and emission reduction policies from the perspective of efficiency in China. Analysis shows that efficiency in energy-intensive industries is significant, which is helpful to realize the target of China’s energy conservation and emission reduction; The rising of energy consumption index resulted from rapid economic growth would conceal the effects of energy conservation and emissions reduction policies in a short run, while it would be remarkable in the long term; To improve efficiency, segmentation policies of energy conservation and emission reduction should be formulated according to the characteristics of different industries.

【基金】 教育部青年基金项目(12YJCZH128,13YJC630083);江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目(2012SJB630040);江苏省研究生创新工程项目(CXLX11_0219)
  • 【文献出处】 生态经济 ,Ecological Economy , 编辑部邮箱 ,2014年09期
  • 【分类号】F224;F062.2
  • 【被引频次】12
  • 【下载频次】384
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