【摘要】 以我国1978-2012年稀土需求量数据为样本,运用ARIMA模型对我国"十二五"末稀土需求量进行预测分析.预测结果表明2013-2015年我国稀土需求量总体上将持续增长,到2015年我国稀土需求总量将达到8.27万吨(REO),与2012年相比,年复合增长率为8.48%.预测具有较高的拟合精度,拟合值与观测值具有较好的一致性.通过对我国稀土需求量进行预测以期为政府制定相关行业政策提供决策依据.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the demand of China’s Rare earth from 1978 to 2012,the present thesis forecasts the demand from 2013 to 2015 with the ARIMA model.The forecast shows the demand of China’s Rare earth will continue to grow from 2013 to 2015 and reach 82,700tons(REO) in 2015.Compared with the demand in 2012,the Compound Average Growth Rate is 8.48 percent.The forecast has high fitting accuracy and there is good consistency between the fitted and observed values.The thesis aims to provide policy-making foundation for the government.更多还原