【摘要】 目的利用自回归求和移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)季节乘积模型建立肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)发病数的预测模型,为HFRS的预防控制提供科学依据。方法应用SPSS18.0软件对青岛市2007年1月—2013年7月HFRS发病数建立ARIMA模型。结果非季节和季节移动平均参数分别为0.816和0.685,t检验的P值均<0.05,有统计学意义。BIC=12.338,Ljung-Box统计量检验残差序列为白噪声序列,表明ARIMA(0,1,1),(0,1,0)12模型是有效的。结论 2013年8—12月HRFS发病数有上升趋势,需进一步加强防范措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To forecast the number of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS) in Qingdao by multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model,so as to provide scientific evidence for the improvement of prevention and control.Methods The ARIMA model was established based on the monthly numbers of HFRS in Qingdao from January 2007 to July 2013 by SPSS18.0 software.Results There were significant difference of the fitted multiple seasonal moving average coefficients with the non-seasonal and the seasonal moving average coefficients being 0.816 and0.685 respectively.Through the test of parameters and goodness of fit as well as white-noise residuals,we finalize the ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) 12,of which BIC = 5.41.Conclusions Forecast by ARIMA model suggests an increase tendency for the number of HFRS in Qingdao from August to December in 2013.Prevention and control strategies should be further strengthed.更多还原