【摘要】 以大伙房水库1956年~2000年10项年径流影响指标的统计数据为资料,基于主成分分析和Logistic方程多元回归方法,建立了大伙房水库径流中长期预报模型,并以2001年~2005年实测径流资料进行外推预报检验。研究结果表明,模型具有较高的拟合精度,预报效果较好,可以用来初步预测大伙房水库2000年之后的径流量,从而为水资源规划与管理部门指导实际生产提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ten factors which affecting annual runoff are selected from the statistical data of Dahuofang Reservoir from 1956 to2000, and then the mid-long term runoff forecasting model is established based on these factors by using principal component analysis and multiple regression analysis of Logistic equation. The model is also used to conduct a extraploting prediction test by using the measured runoff data from 2001 to 2005. The results show that the mid-long term runoff forecasting model has higher fitting accuracy and good forecast effect, which can be used to make a primary prediction on the runoff of Dahuofang Reservoir after 2000.更多还原