【摘要】 萨托利提出舆情治理的大潮模式和瀑布模式。本文试图以网络舆情为场域,应用计算仿真实验研究方法,建立仿真模型,设计仿真程序,开展网络舆情机制行为的仿真研究,描述不同治理机制下网络舆情传播动态行为,解释网络舆情传播动态行为机理。通过仿真实验研究认为:1.大潮模式的网络舆情治理机制行为至少具有五重效应:稳定效应、聚合效应、沉默的螺旋效应、漏斗效应和包容效应等;2.瀑布模式的网络舆情治理机制行为则至少有另外的五重效应:不稳定效应、有限聚合效应、中庸效应、极化效应和排斥异己效应等。3.就稳定性而言,大潮模式的网络舆情治理机制优于瀑布模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sartori views that public opinion includes tide mode and waterfall mode.This paper studied the governance mechanisms of network public opinion using simulation experimental research design.The network public opinion formation and communication under different mechanism and circumstances were specifically studied using computer simulation(Netlogo).It is found that under tide mode,the network public opinion action has five-fold effect:stability effect,aggregate effect,the spiral of silence effect,funnel of causality effect and tolerance effect,but under waterfall mode,the network public opinion action process produces the opposite five effects,i.e.,instability effect,limited aggregate effect,middle-to-low effect,polarization effect and exclusive effect.Hence,in terms of political stability,tide mode is superior to waterfall mode.更多还原