【摘要】 在考虑水资源脆弱性影响因素随机性基础上,结合地区风险暴露水平,采用广义最小二乘法建立灾害损失模型,以期望灾害损失占GDP比重作为衡量水资源脆弱性的重要指标,依据我国31个省市自治区的多年平均降水量,采用Z指数法评价其旱涝风险等级,估计了短期内期望灾害损失占GDP比重,并对此进行核密度估计以确定水资源脆弱性等级划分阈值,据此对各地区水资源脆弱性进行等级划分,结合旱涝灾害风险等级划分和水资源脆弱性等级划分,对各地区的脆弱性与旱涝风险进行配对研究。结果表明,我国区域间降水量分布与水资源脆弱性分布并不完全相同,水资源脆弱性更多地与经济发展水平相关,经济发达并不意味着水资源高度脆弱。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of considering the randomness of influencing factors of water resources’ vulnerability and in combination with the risk exposure level of different regions,the disaster loss model is established with generalized least square method and the proportion of anticipated disaster loss in GDP is taken as an important indicator for measuring the vulnerability of water resources.According to the annual mean precipitation in 31 regions of China,Zindex method is adopted to evaluate their drought and flood risk level.It estimates the proportion of anticipated disaster loss in GDP in the short-term and the corresponding kernel density estimation is also conducted to determine the threshold value of water resources’ vulnerability.Thus,the grading of vulnerability of water resources in different regions is divided.By integrating the grading of drought and flood risk level and the grading of water resources’ vulnerability,matched pair study is conducted for the vulnerability and the drought and flood risk in various regions.The results show that the regional precipitation distribution is not entirely the same with the distribution of water resources’ vulnerability;water resources’ vulnerability is more related to the level of economic development,and the developed economy does not necessarily mean water resources are highly vulnerable.更多还原