【摘要】 在灾害风险评估中,基于行政区域统计单元的人口和经济数据往往与栅格水平上的致灾因子存在空间上的不匹配。利用遥感夜间灯光数据、植被指数和DEM数据构建人居指数,进行栅格尺度上的雷灾承灾体易损性分析,利用2005—2011年浙江省电网雷电信息系统的地闪数据和2008—2011年雷电灾害统计资料进行雷电致灾危险性评估,基于上述三个评估指标,采用层次分析法确定权重系数,建立浙江省雷电灾害风险评估模型,获得1 km分辨率的浙江省雷电灾害风险区划图。结果表明,杭州、宁波、台州等经济发达地区和长兴、安吉、天台和临海等平地向山区地形过渡地带是浙江省雷电高风险区,甬台温沿海、海岛、衢州西部和丽水南部地区是低风险区域,其他地区为中风险区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Vulnerability assessment identifies and maps the underlying elements at risk, including the built environment and socioeconomic factors such as population and economic activity. However, a spatial mismatch of hazard data and vulnerability data(e.g. population and GDP) exists in disaster risk analysis. This article provides an integrated approach for a rapid and accurate estimation of vulnerability in grid level through the combined use of multi-sensor remote-sensing data, namely the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System(DMSP/OLS) night-time imagery, normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), and the digital elevation model(DEM) data, to generate a human settlement index(HSI). There are strong straight-line correlation between HSI and population and GDP. Therefore, the HSI is chosen as the vulnerability assessment index of lightning disaster. Based on the densities of earth-striking lightning from 2005 to 2011 and the lightning disasters statistic data from 2008 to 2011 in Zhejiang province, the hazard of lightning was assessed. The lightning disaster risk in the province is evaluated using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) method with the ground-lightning density, annual mean lightning disaster frequency, and human settlement index as three assessment indices and a lightning disaster risk zoning map for the province at a resolution of 1km×1km was generated. The results of risk zoning of lightning disasters show that the highly urbanized and developed areas(such as Hangzhou, Ningbo and Taizhou) and the terrain transition zones(such as Changxing, Anji, Tiantai and Linhai) belong to the high damageable area. The Ningbo, Taizhou and Wenzhou’s coast, the islands, the western part of Quzhou and the southern part of Lishui belong to the low damageable area. The rest of the province belongs to the medium damageable area.更多还原