【摘要】 利用实时红外卫星云图资料,在湖北省分区域短时暴雨云图特征分析的基础上,通过提取与短时暴雨相关的云图特征参数,结合NCEP数值预报综合判断,建立湖北省分区域0～6h卫星云图短时暴雨概率预报方法,并已投入实时业务预报应用。结果表明:所选云图特征参数能够较好的体现不同区域间短时暴雨云团特征,概率预报计算方法合理,对于短时暴雨的预报起到一定的指导作用。从预报检验看,预报方法还应在减小空报和漏报方面继续改进。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the characteristic analysis of satellite images during short-time rainstorm in Hubei Province,by using the real-time satellite data and collecting the characteristic parameters of the images related to the short-time rainstorm,aprobabilistic short-time rainstorm forecasting method is presented,which is regionalized with a lead time of 0to 6hour,in combination with NCEP numerical forecasting products.The results show that the selected characteristic parameters can reflect the different characteristics of short-time rainstorms,and the calculating method is reasonable and plays a certain guidance role in short-time rainstorm forecasting,but it should be improved in the aspects of false and miss forecasting rates.更多还原