【摘要】 采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验统计方法,分析涪江流域径流与降水的变化趋势与突变特征,用累积量斜率变化率比较法评估降水对涪江流域径流变化的影响。结果表明,1951—2012年涪江流域年径流量与降水量均表现为显著的减少趋势,突变出现在1968年;20世纪90年代以后降水与径流明显偏少;年径流量与降水量有很好的线性相关关系,但在冬季相关性较差;降水减少是径流减少的主要原因(贡献率为71.4%),而下垫面人类生产活动对径流减少的贡献率为28.6%。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Mann-Kendall test has been applied to detect the trends and abrupt changes of the precipitation and runoff for the Fujiang River basin.The contribution of precipitation to the runoff change has been estimated with the rate of change in the slope of cumulative amount.The results indicate that the annual precipitation and runoff have decreased significantly during the period of 1951-2012,especially alter the 1990s,and the abrupt changes of the annual precipitation and runoff both occurred in 1968.The linear relationship between the annual runoff and precipitation is good,but poor in winter.The decrease of runoff could be attributed to precipitation change(71.4%)and human activities(28.6%).更多还原