【摘要】 在货币政策统一而财政政策分散的欧元区内,成员国面对非对称冲击时往往会通过增加政府支出等措施来刺激经济。这种扩张性的财政政策是否起到了刺激本国经济的作用?对欧元区内其他成员国有无影响?为回答上述问题,本文使用贸易关联矩阵构建了一个包含11个成员国的欧元区GVAR模型,并基于这些国家1990年一季度至2012年四季度的数据对成员国的财政溢出效应进行检验。通过分析各国主要宏观经济变量对单个成员国以及欧元区整体政府支出冲击的脉冲响应结果,发现部分成员国的扩张性财政政策在增加本国产出的同时对其他国家产生了负面影响;若多个成员国同时增加政府支出,将导致各国GDP普遍下降。因此,有必要对成员国的财政政策进行有效的协调。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the Euro zone with a unified monetary policy but disintegrated fiscal policies,the member states usually stimulate their economies by increasing government spending when they’re faced with asymmetric shocks. Have the expansionary fiscal policies indeed stimulated the domestic economies And have these policies had impacts on the other members in the Euro zone In order to answer these questions, this paper, based on the quarterly data from Q11990 to Q4 2012, constructs a GVAR model using trade weight metrics of 11 members in the Euro zone to test the fiscal spillover effects. After analyzing the impulse response results of the major macroeconomic variables towards government spending shocks from individual member states and the Eurozone as a whole, it finds that the expansionary fiscal policy of one country may have negative effects on the other members and that the simultaneous increase of several countries’ government spending may slow down the GDP of each of them.Therefore, it’s quite necessary to coordinate the fiscal policies of the member states in the Euro zone.更多还原