【摘要】 首先回顾了近年来中国大豆产业发展的基本情况,指出生产连续滑坡、产需缺口不断扩大、进口快速增长、价格总体上涨是市场的主要特点,并分析了其主要影响因素。其次,在判断未来各影响因素变化的基础上对未来10年中国大豆生产、消费、贸易和价格进行了展望,预计中国大豆种植面积降幅有所减小,产量略有恢复,消费继续增长,但增幅明显低于前10年。最后指出未来中国大豆供需仍存在一定的不确定因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzed China’s soybean industry development in past years firstly. The author pointed out the main features that the production declined, demand exceeded production more and more,imports grew rapidly and overall price rose, and furthermore analyzed their main influence factors. Then this article forecasted China’s soybean production, consumption, trade and price on the basis of main influence factors’ trend in the next decade. It is expected that soybean acre will drop slowly, production will increase slightly and consumption will continue growing with lower growth rate than last decade. Finally we indicated that there were still some uncertain factors in China’s soybean market in the future.更多还原