【摘要】 在简述宁夏青铜峡水库基本概况的基础上,利用青铜峡水库上游区域31个气象观测站1959—2007年的气象资料,分析了青铜峡水库蓄水前后上游区域气象变量的差异,并对水库上游未来40 a的气候变化趋势进行了预估.结果表明,在青铜峡水库上游区域,水库蓄水以后时段与蓄水以前时段相比,秋季降水量显著减少,冬季降水量显著增加;秋季平均最高气温、冬季和年平均最低气温均显著升高,其中冬季平均最低气温升高最明显;秋季相对湿度显著减小;冬季日照时数显著减少.预估结果表明,在SRESA1B情景下,未来40 a(2011—2050年)青铜峡水库上游区域年平均气温呈较明显的上升趋势,年降水量总体上有所增加.最后指出全球变暖背景下未来气候变化可能对水库造成的影响,给出水库运行的一些建议.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the briefly introduction of the basic information of the Qingtongxia reservoir,using meteorological data of31 observational stations during 1959—2007, the differences of the meteorological variables were analyzed for the upper basin of Qingtongxia reservoir before and after impounding, and the climate variability trends are also projected in the coming 40 years. The analyses show that in the upper basin of Qingtongxia reservoir, the autumn rainfall after the reservoir impounding decreases significant comparing with that before its impounding. In addition the following variables changes also significant,winter rainfall increases; mean temperature in autumn and winter, the maximum temperature in autumn, the minimum temperature in winter and annual mean temperature increase, especially, the minimum temperature increases most sharply; the relative humidity in autumn decreases; the sunshine hours decrease. The project shows that in SRESA1 B scene, the annual mean temperature raises significantly and annual rainfall increases in the upper basin of Qingtongxia reservoir in coming 40 years(2011—2050). In the end, some proposals are bring forward to possible effects of climate change in the future on the reservoir and reservoir running under the background of the global warming.更多还原