【摘要】 基于乌审旗1961-2010年气象数据与农牧业生产数据,分析了乌审旗近50年来气候变化规律、年末牲畜存栏变化、及其与农牧业收入之间的关系,在此基础上建立了气候要素与农牧业收入的"气候-生产力"关系模型和Ricardian模型.结果表明:MT、MTmax、MTmin、WI、CI以及H-PER呈上升趋势,其中MT、Mtmax、Mtmin上升速率分别为0.25℃/10a、0.22℃/10a、0.27℃/10a、7.86mm/10a;AP下降速率为8.67mm/10a.在该时段,年末牲畜存栏头数和载畜量呈增长趋势,年末大牲畜头数呈下降趋势;农牧业生产与气候要素变化有着密切的关系:MT、MTmax、MTmin、WI、CI、H-PER和SH分别与农牧业产值呈正相关;WS、大牲畜存栏数与农牧业产值分别成负相关."气候-生产力"模型预测的农牧业产值与实际农牧业产值之间的相关性在α=0.01水平上分别达到0.753、0.766,决定系数R分别为0.723和0.729,"气候-生产力"模型比Ricardian模型更适用于乌审旗地区;整体来看,气候因素对农牧业收入的影响大于资本投入对农牧业收入的影响.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the climate change and agricultural production data from Uxin Banner during1961-2010,changes of climate and agricultural production and relationship between climate change and agricultural production were analyed,a "climate-productivity" model and Ricardian model were established.The results are as follows:(1)Trend of MT,Mtmax,Mtmin,WI,CI and H-PER in Uxin Banner is significantly changing with the rate of 0.25℃/10 a,0.22℃/10 a,0.27℃/10 a,7.86mm/10a;AP is decreasing with the rate of 8.67mm/10 a.(2)Total number of livestock and livestock capacity show a increasing trend,large livestock population is decreasing.(3)MT,Mtmax,Mtmin,WI,CI,H-PER,SH are positively correlation with agriculture and animal husbandry output value.WS,a large number of livestock are negatively related to agriculture and animal husbandry output value.(4)Correlation coefficients between agriculture-animal husbandry output value predicted by "climate-productivity" model and the actual value of agriculture-animal husbandry are 0.753 and 0.766 at levelsα=0.01,the determinated coefficient R are 0.723 and 0.729. " Climate-productivity" model is more suitable than Ricardian model for Uxin Banner.Overall,climate factors have an influence stronger than capital investment on the income of agriculture-animal husbandry.更多还原