【摘要】 江苏—南黄海地区是我国东部地震重点监视防御区之一,自1846年以来,该研究区M≥6强震活动具有显著的可公度性和有序性,其主要有序值为74~75 a、57~58 a、11~12 a和5~6 a,其中74~75 a和57~58 a具有突出的预测作用.根据翁文波信息预测理论,构建了该研究区全区和南黄海海域M≥6强震的二维和三维有序网络结构,据此分析讨论了该区地震活动的分期,并对未来M≥6强震趋势进行了预测.研究结论表明:该区从1998年起进入新一轮平静幕,此幕可能持续到2042年前后;该区下次活跃幕的首次M≥6强震可能发生在2053年前后,地点很可能在南黄海海域内;未来第2次、第3次M≥6强震或强震群可能分别发生在2058、2070年前后.更多还原

【Abstract】 The Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring & defence areas in the eastern part of China. Since 1846,M≥6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region. The main orderly values are 74-75 a,57-58 a,11-12 a and 5-6 a,wherein 74-75 a and 57-58 a carries an outstanding predictive role. According to the information prediction theory of Weng Wenbo,we conceived the 2Dand 3D-ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea and the whole research region. Based on this,we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made trend prediction of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the future. The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about year 2042; and the first M≥6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur around year 2053,with the likely location in the area of the South Yellow Sea; furthermore,the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur around year 2058 and 2070.更多还原