【摘要】 本文通过构建生猪周期模型,分析了如何运用常见干预政策平抑生猪周期以及各项干预政策的适用性、收益效应、最佳时机和替代性。研究发现,若政府可以选择一组及时适当的政策组合并辅以一套合理的干预策略,即使政府仅有不完全信息也可以保证生猪价格稳定在某个均衡价格或某个合理的价格范围内;并且政府干预的时间长度不仅依赖于养殖户的价格预期,也依赖于政府自身的信息状况。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1978,the hog price frequently rises and drops suddenly and sharply,and recurs a cycle of fluctuation. It’s a so-called"An expensive price hurts the civilians,but a cheap one hurts the farmers". After all,how should the government intervene to stabilize the hog cycle? This paper builds a hog cycle model,expounds in detail how to use common intervention policy to smooth out hog cycle,and deeply discusses the applicability,income effect,the best timing and substitutability of each intervention policy. This paper finds that even if the government merely has the incomplete information,it also can guarantee that the hog price stabilizes at a certain equilibrium price or in a reasonable price range if the government could choose a group of timely and appropriate policies and a set of reasonable intervention strategies. In addition,the time lengths of government intervention not only depends the farmers’ price expectation,but also on the information that the government itself has.更多还原