【摘要】 相同区域内的风电场风电功率之间存在较强的相关性,基于相关性分析理论,对5种Copula函数特性进行逐一分析,分别对某地区存在相关性的实际风电功率进行拟合和对比,进而构建综合Copula函数模型,对模型参数采用EM方法进行估计,并对构建的综合Copula函数进行拟合优度检验和对比,选取最优函数组合,运用多场景技术构建的两风电出力场景,对实际系统进行无功优化,验证了综合Copula函数模型在无功优化中运用的合理性和有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is a strong correlation between wind power outputs within the same area. Characteristics of five Copulas are analyzed based on the correlation theory, fitting and contrast of two wind powers that actually correlate with each other in an area. Then a comprehensive Copula function model is built based on linear combinations of Copula function. The model parameters are estimated using the EM method. The goodness of fit of built models are tested and compared, the optimal combination of Copula function is selected. A scene with two wind power outputs is built using the multi-scene technology. The actual system reactive power is also optimized. The validity and effectiveness of application of the comprehensive Copula function model on reactive power optimization are verified.更多还原