【摘要】 腐蚀是造成油气管道失效的重要因素,腐蚀缺陷包括体积型和平面型两大类,但目前针对以裂纹类为主的平面型缺陷油气管道风险的定量评估方法研究较少。本文基于API 579规范,结合结构可靠性理论,通过引入不确定性概念,建立了含裂纹类缺陷油气管道失效概率的定量评估方法,对悬跨疲劳等其他失效类型管道风险的定量评估具有借鉴意义;同时,就Monte Carlo方法求解失效概率的适用性进行了讨论,并通过实例分析表明,相对于一定的失效概率级别,需要达到一定的模拟次数才能保证运算结果的可靠性和稳定性,但两者的对应关系还有待进一步研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Corrosion is an important factor for the failure of oil and gas transmission pipelines,and corrosion defects include two types of the volume and plane.By now there have been lots of researches on the former one,but few involve the latter.Based on the API 579specification and in combination with the structural reliability theory,this paper establishes a quantitative method to evaluate the failure probability of oil and gas pipelines containing crack defects by introducing the concept of uncertainty,and this method has reference meaning for the quantitative evaluation of the other failure modes like free span and fatigue.Through an instance analysis,the paper also discusses the applicability of solving failure probability based on Monte Carlo method,and the result shows that for a certain failure probability level,certain simulation times are needed to ensure the reliability and stability of simulation results; however,the correspondence between the two remains to be further researched.更多还原