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公共危机中个体风险感知的系统动力学建模与仿真研究
System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Individual Risk Perception in Public Crisis
【摘要】 运用系统力学工具Vensim对个体风险感知的影响因素进行建模与仿真分析,得出人们对危机事件的风险感知主要受个体自身因素的影响。研究表明,在爆发危机事件时,政府除了对公众实施急救措施外,还应该与公众进行有效的沟通,并将公众的风险感知纳入风险分析及政府决策中。
【Abstract】 In this paper,the software system dynamics Vensim is used to model and simulate the individual perception to the risk. The result shows that individual risk perception is mainly affected by individual factors in the public crises. The study shows that in addition to the assistance to the public,the government should also communicate effectively with the public,and the public’s perception to the risks should be included in risk analysis and policies setting in the crisis event.
【关键词】 公共危机;
风险感知;
系统动力学;
仿真建模;
【Key words】 system dynamics; risk perception; public crisis; simulation modeling;
【Key words】 system dynamics; risk perception; public crisis; simulation modeling;
【基金】 国家社会科学基金项目“网络群体行为规律与政府治理研究”(10GBLO083)
- 【文献出处】 科技管理研究 ,Science and Technology Management Research , 编辑部邮箱 ,2014年05期
- 【分类号】X913.4
- 【被引频次】10
- 【下载频次】760